Twin Cities 2021

It’s January 1st 2022. That means it’s time for your Twin Cities Real Estate Market update – and this is going to be a full year – recap for 2021. So we’re going to talk about where we started, where we ended with the market changed and then I’m giving you a little bit of my projections of what’s going to happen over the next 12 months as well. Let’s dig right into the numbers !

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First, we’re going to start talking about the change in sale price. So again, like I said we’re going to primarily be talking about January 1st, where we started twin cities was at 301 000. You can see we’re up just about 15 there for the year, so , that’s about where I expected. We would be. That’s still really really high. That’s a lot more increase than we would like to see.

Overall , We will see that mellow out a little bit over the next month, , but, generally speaking, you know the long-term inflation average. We want to be somewhere more around four percent and so we’re exponentially above that everyone’s wanting to know, what’s going to happen with prices Next year.

We are hoping for a market to shift which I’m going to talk about a lot throughout this , This video for you, but . Generally speaking, we’re still going to see prices going up, We’re also going to see interest rates going up . So that number will be higher next year, but we’re just hoping it’ll be less. You know. Single digits would be a real blessing. A lot of the different people that I’ve seen have said.

You know three four, five, six, seven eight percent, maybe somewhere in that very vague range of predictions , but hopefully not in the ten to fifteen percent – that we’ve been seeing so a good number about fifteen percent and would love for that to slow down.

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A little bit next up, let’s look at month’s supply of inventory, so we started with one month’s supply of inventory. We ended at 0.8, so we’re down about 20 percent in case you haven’t been on my channel and see me talk about this a bunch. This is the metric between buyer and sellers market, so the lower. We are the more of a seller’s market, we’re in the higher more of a balance or buyers market. We would be in and typically, you know, depending on who, you ask four to six months.

Is a pretty good middle ground, four to six months of inventory, and, as you can see here, this is a five year graph, we’re not even close to that we’re we’re exponentially under even the low side of that with four so .

Obviously we needed this to come up. We were hoping to see this number start to rise for us. We didn’t see that, and typically the lowest month for this is January, so we’re actually expecting that number to go down, unfortunately, to bottom out the year to give us a true January to January. We’ll see how that January number comes out, but unfortunately that one is probably going to go down for us as well.

So, let’s look at days on market now, I’m going to show you a couple graphs on this one. Obviously, if we’re going more into a seller’s market the days on market is going to be lower than we’d want it to be. That’s actually not terribly the case in the numbers i’m seeing, so this one was a little bit surprising January 22 days on market last month, 18 for December. So let me I’m going to flip to this. For you same graph here, you know 22 to 18. Now, let’s look at January to January in 2019, now we’re skipping 2020 because obviously the pandemic kind of screwed, with our numbers there but 19 to 20

We saw the same exact number of days on market at 44.., So at the peak of the sellers, when things are selling a lot more quickly, 17 days on market, which was tied for may and june there as well . What’S interesting is then, if you look at let’s say we’re right here right and we’re at 34 Days on market? That means that it came up dramatically from the sellers . What is that basically doubled right and then, from december to January it came up 10 days on market. So that’s a huge huge increase to bring us back and it actually was dead center . You know, even from there

So then, what do we predict for this year again? This number should be going up January is typically the highest of each of these peaks That you’re looking at. So we should expect that to come up a little bit, which is good. We want more days on market things are selling so quickly. That’S why it’s so favorable for sellers, but not buyers, right!

We need this whole thing to start trending upwards. We did see a really nice increase from our sellers, which was at seven so again, if we’re looking at these numbers right 44 to 17. What is that 60? Something percent drop during the sellers , which is pretty consistent with the previous years, and then this year as well. You know we’re about the same right from 22 to 7, so that was about the same percentage-wise of a reduction in days on market

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It’S also actually about correct for where we should be. If we’re going to have one more month going up and then you can see that we, you know, maybe we’ll end oops. Let me do this, then, maybe we’ll in somewhere in here, and if we can at least kind of match, where we were i’d, love to see that .

You know we’ll have to see again next month where we end up, but i expect that we’re pretty well on track to to be where we should – and i would love love love for January’s numbers to be just a little bit higher than than where they Were when we started the leader so days on market, something that could be a little bit encouraging and I’m really hoping we still see that one going up on the flip side. What’S not particularly encouraging was our our homes for sale?

Now this is the number of homes actively on the market. This isn’t the new listings coming in, but what’s what’s still present when they record these numbers . Currently, you know we’re down considerably from where we’re at 5600 to 4200 pretty big reduction there right. We are again expecting this number to go down January is going to be typically the lowest in the little valleys here. Our lowest month will be January. Obviously with things selling off in December and not getting listed in December.

That leaves January the lowest , But what i do want to point out and I`ll show you a couple times on here: if January is the bottom generally, those numbers start to spike up pretty quick. So when people think spring market don’t actually think spring like , you know april may june , you know march spring record really does start right after the first of the year and so we’ll see this number reflect low because it’s showing December’s new listings coming In there will be very few December listings going in , therefore January numbers are low, but then they spike very, very quickly , something else that’ll be interesting. So this i’ll show you this is a five-year graph of a number of homes for sale. Let’s pull it out to our max, which shows us, you know 10 or 12 and, as you can see, just the overall number of homes for sale is incredibly low.

So you know: we’ve been seeing this trending down. If then, when the market does start to shift we’ll hope to see this coming up, if you’ve, you know seen me talking in other videos, i was expecting or really hoping. I should say that we would see this number slow down and not keep going. It definitely just dropped even more and we’ll still expect it to go down one more month. So that’s not particularly encouraging , as this number has been kind of trending downwards.

We need to start see it turning up, but you know, as you can see here, it really doesn’t happen overnight. This was the big booming bust of the early 2000’s. The great recession happened in here and . You know things, don’t don’t shift overnight right, and so, even with this change here, you can see it’s happening over several years and with this shift happening again, we’re hoping this curve will start to do this number. But it’s not going to be . Immediate

It’S not going to be overnight. It’S not going to be an immediate swing this year, so some people are hoping it’s going to swing, that’s not encouraging to you , but other people that are. You know. I’Ve seen some people that are banking on. Well, it’s going to change this year, so i’m just going to hold off a year!

The reality is, prices are going to be, higher, interest rates are going to be higher, and so therefore, everything is going to be more expensive in a year from now, and so it’s just not going to happen overnight right. So last thing i want to show you: this is actually been the most fascinating thing, , i kind of hinted at for you last time. This is the number of showings per listing before that listing goes pending, right and so . This is honestly kind of encouraging to me to see, because the sellers that we had right here was completely out of the ordinary, that’s not something we had seen before. Maybe it’s affected by the pandemic, because people had held off and then they kind of sprung into action.

First of the year , the number of showings we had the amount of competition that our buyers were facing was just absolutely unheard of . So, for those that had you know, you’ve been hearing, maybe your neighbor listed their home and they had five gazillion showings and a ton of offers. That was definitely the case. That’S also definitely over . Currently, who knows what this coming sellers will look like, but there’s no reason to think that you know this big spike in the number of showings that buyers are having to compete with, is going to be anything like that in reality, we’re actually down pretty similar to Where we would be obviously we’d love for that valley to be dropping a little bit lower like it had been previous, you know prior to the pandemic, you know so maybe this could have been a little bit lower, but in all reality we’re we’re actually pretty close To where we should have been going into the new year, so for those that had heard of that, if you’re on the sell side, you’re going to, have to get your expectations in the line with okay having a strong number of showings, you know, Maybe maybe five to twenty, depending on the price point of the home and an offer or two that’s going to be a really good number, as we go into the spring and into the sellers, who’s

No, who knows what we’ll be looking like when the sellers market comes around it’ll, be a very, very touch and go situation as i watch the market and see how we come out of this , because it happens very very quickly. If we put that into you, know another perspective, let me clear this out for you here’s what those numbers look like, and the reason i want to put this in is this – does not actually peak when a lot of people would think so.

So if you look at this past year, this was our January, but December was down here right October November are the bottom months there, with about 15 showings per listing December, came up a little bit kind of like it does here and that’s where we’re looking well? What’s going to happen, you know this jped from basically 16 to 21 in one month . We need to not see that , that much again, and so hopefully

Hopefully, this will almost flatten out in plateau because during the winter months is when things are moving The slowest and so usually, hopefully that will that will help out, but definitely not expecting a spike to happen this year and we’re hoping that those numbers will turn around. So there you go, that is your twin cities: Market update for January from December 2021. Hope you have a great new year’s make sure subscribe, find me on all the different platforms, and i will see you next time.

Van Mill Real Estate 2022
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