Zillow`s home value Zestimate

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Here are the most frequently asked questions about selling your home and zestimate

According to Redfin, its estimates are approximately 76% accurate within 5% of the sales price for listed homes. By comparison, Zillow says it’s 82% accurate within 5% of the sale price for listed homes. That’s a difference of about 6.5 percentage points for Redfin’s listed homes, compared to Zillow.

For most major markets, the Zestimate for on-market homes is within 10% of the final sale price more than 95% of the time. The nationwide median error rate for the Zestimate for on-market homes is 1.9%, while the Zestimate for off-market homes has a median error rate of 6.9%.

The main difference between Realtor.com home values and Zillow Zestimates is that Zillow uses its own program to create a Zestimate, while Realtor.com uses several 3rd parties to provide multiple home values.

Short for “Zillow Estimate,” a Zestimate is Zillow’s proprietary home valuation tool that utilizes an algorithm and publicly available information about a property to provide an estimate of its current market value.

 

How is the Zestimate calculated?

Zillow publishes Zestimate home valuations for 104 million homes across the country, and uses state of the art statistical and machine learning models that can examine hundreds of data points for each individual home.

To calculate a Zestimate, Zillow uses a sophisticated neural network-based model that incorporates data from county and tax assessor records and direct feeds from hundreds of multiple listing services and brokerages. The Zestimate also incorporates:

  • Home characteristics including square footage, location or the number of bathrooms.
  • On-market data such as listing price, description, comparable homes in the area and days on the market
  • Off-market data — tax assessments, prior sales and other publicly available records
  • Market trends, including seasonal changes in demand

Currently, we have data for over 110 million U.S. homes and we publish Zestimates for 104 million of them.

A Zestimate is Zillow’s estimated market value for a home, computed using a proprietary formula including public and user-submitted data. Updating your home facts can help make your Zestimate more accurate. A Zestimate is not an official appraisal, but is a starting point in determining a home’s value.

How accurate is the Zestimate?

The Zestimate’s accuracy depends on location and the availability of data in an area. The Zestimate’s median error rate for on-market homes nationwide is 1.9%, meaning Zestimates for half of all on-market homes are within 2% of the ultimate sale price, and half are not. For off-market homes, the median error rate is 7.5%. Check your Zestimate or update your home details.

 

An appraisal is provided by a licensed appraiser who analyzes the features of your home, and nearby comparable sales to determine a fair market value. Your Zestimate is free on Zillow, and is an estimated market value based on public and user-submitted data. A Zillow Offer is an official purchase amount based on comparable sales, market trends and an in-house evaluation.

Zillow Home Values Explained

Are you wondering whether Zillow house values are accurate?

One of the questions real estate agents often get from consumers is, “how accurate are Zillow home value estimates.”

Home buyers and home sellers need to understand right from the get-go that a Zillow home value is NOT accurate the vast majority of the time.

There are more tools available than ever for the average person interested in buying or selling a home.

The internet provides numerous resources for everything related to real estate – locating properties, viewing, listing, advice on buying and selling, and even pricing calculators.

Zillow is one of the more popular real estate websites that offer many of these tools. Unfortunately, while these tools can certainly prove handy, there are times when using them can give you unreliable information.

One such tool that has proved to be unpredictable repeatedly is a Zillow home value or Zillow Zestimate, as the company likes to call it.

Zillow’s Zestimate is used to provide a home’s value for any property in the United States. Unfortunately, Zestimate accuracy is all over the map, just like other online estimates.

If you are buying or selling a home, you should never rely on Zillow’s estimate to make a value decision. Whether you buy a house or sell a house, you’ll want accurate information to make an informed decision.

By the time you’re done reading, you’ll have an in-depth understanding of why Zillow home values should not be trusted.

The Problem With Zillow Home Value Estimates

Websites like Zillow have great potential to empower buyers and sellers. Where once the world of comparable sales and real estate values was understood only by real estate agents, now everyday buyers and sellers can learn tons of useful information about area properties, including their own.

They no longer have to go to a real estate agent for every little bit of knowledge. The problem is that the estimates – or “Zestimates,” as Zillow calls them – are not always accurate. In fact, they can be wildly off, leaving the buyer or seller worse off than before they looked at them.

Zillow may do its best to give you an accurate price of what a home is worth. In the end, though, it is only an automated system that cannot think for itself.

It cannot account for variations in any number of things – changes that substantially alter the price from any sort of “average.”

Could the estimations be better programmed to account for this stuff? Definitely, but we are not dealing with the ideal Zillow; we are dealing with it as it is now.

When you are trying to buy or sell, you cannot afford to be off by tens of thousands of dollars in your pricing or your bidding.

So when someone asks a Realtor, “are Zillow home value estimates accurate,” you will probably see a look like the one in the picture above.

From my personal experience, looking at Zillow home values in the area of Massachusetts, where I am located, they are typically off anywhere from $20,000 to $50,000 of the actual market value. Probably better than some markets but worse than others.

 

 

How Zillow Estimates Value

Zillow uses a proprietary formula to determine the value of a property based on information the website has obtained from public records and information entered by users.

For example, they will use the number of bedrooms, baths, the square feet of living area, and other property data points to figure out property values.

The site knows what the home sold for the last time it was purchased, and it knows this same information for other homes in the surrounding area. Using this along with data entered in by homeowners and user-submitted data – things like features of their particular home – Zillow comes up with a price that a home is worth.

Zillow’s proprietary algorithms take all of the available data and use it in the Zillow home value estimator to arrive at their market zestimates.

Unfortunately, Zillow’s algorithm cannot consider all the unique characteristics of individual properties that dramatically impact their value.

Assessed Value is a Significant Piece of The Zillow Zestimate

From what many have gathered, one of the value factors that are at the top of Zillow’s formula is using a property’s assessed value from tax records.

Unfortunately, rarely does assessed home value have a correlation to market value. They are two completely different things. Assessed values are used by towns to collect taxes and, in many cases, trail the actual market value of a home.

Using this piece of information will throw off Zillow’s home values right off the bat.

In my experience, I have seen homes sell for over $100,000 more than the assessed value. I have also seen them sell for that much under the value.

Intelligent real estate agents never look at the assessed value when trying to determine market value. If only life were that easy. It would make our jobs as agents so much easier.

Why Zillow Estimates Fail So Often

On the surface, Zillow’s method seems like it would give a pretty decent ballpark figure for the value of a home. And sometimes, it succeeds.

More often, though, the Zillow home value is off significantly – sometimes by 40% or more.

The most recent selling price of a property is certainly useful information to have and is likely the easiest concrete data that Zillow can obtain.

What a home is sold for is information that buyers and sellers should know about properties. However, it does not indicate what a home is worth now.

The market is changing minute to minute and a sale price that is years if not decades old is no way to estimate the current value of a home.

The recent sale prices of nearby homes are also useful when you are buying or selling. Known as comparable sales, they make up a major factor in how a local real estate agent will price a home.

The problem is, these comparable sales need to be considered for what they actually are – not as indisputable numbers.

Comparable sales can only be viewed as an apples-to-apples scenario in particular situations.

A Zillow Home Value is More Accurate With Cookie-Cutter Homes

If your home is very similar to all the other homes in the neighborhood – such as in a newer housing development of moderately priced homes – and no one has had time to renovate the properties, comparable sales may be easier viewed as apples to apples.

But if you are in an area where the age, size, or features are varied, it quickly becomes an apple to oranges situation: both fruit, but very different kinds of fruit.

The way a Realtor determines real estate market value is off the charts, different than how Zillow’s website does it. Local real estate agents or even a professional appraiser understand how one comparable sale relates to the next.

An excellent Realtor is seasoned in comparing drastically different homes in a single neighborhood to get an accurate price on a property. Zillow does not have this kind of ability. This is why it can be off so significantly at times.

Comparable properties are only one tool in measuring a home’s value, and Zillow is not so great at using this information as it should be used.

Zillow Tells You The Accuracy of Zestimates is Off

Zillow’s website, in fact, does a good job informing consumers that Zestimates may not be accurate on this web page. The problem, however, is that most people never see it. Maybe it would be a good idea for Realtors to share this webpage more?

Another reason the estimates are so off, according to Zillow, is their evaluation method differs from that of a comparative market analysis (CMA) completed by a real estate agent or a home appraisal completed by a local certified appraiser.

Geographically, the data Zillow uses is much broader than just your neighborhood or town. Zillow states that often, they use all the data in a county to calculate property values.

There may be no recent sales in the “neighborhood,” but even a few sales in the area allow them to extrapolate changes in the local housing market for a particular area.

However, the data they gather does allow the models to incorporate the neighborhood patterns of recent sales.

Is there any wonder why Zillow home value estimates are so inaccurate? All that keeps coming to mind when thinking about using “county data” is you have got to be kidding me.

The values from one county to the next in my area vary tremendously! Let’s throw all the data into one big barrel and call it Zillow value soup. Frankly, that is exactly what the Zillow home value estimator does.

The Zillow Median Error Rate

Zillow states that the median error rate for all U.S. homes is 5 percent. It sounds impressive until you realize what that really means. For all those non-math majors out there, it means that the Zillow property value is within the purchase price only 50 percent of the time.

Frankly, that sucks! Can you imagine wanting to know the value of your home and the actual sale sales price was off by more than 5% over half the time? If you got a professional appraisal of the home, I am sure you would be greatly disappointed if they were off by that much.

If real estate professionals were also giving you inaccurate information to make an informed decision, you would not be pleased. Who would!

Zillow also states that their media error rate for on-market homes is 1.9%, while their off-market homes come in at 7.5%. The correct listing price and corresponding final sales price are critical for buyers and sellers to make the best decisions.

When you sell your house, you want the estimated value to be accurate. Likewise, when buying a house, you want the subject property price range value to be close. Negotiating is awfully tough if you’re relying on public data that is not accurate.

The bottom line is the margin of error is far too high to rely on at the end of the day. The real estate industry demands accurate information, and online tools are no way to get it.

The Zillow home value index may have improved since its inception but it is still far from being a good thing to trust. The true value of a home is best calculated by speaking with professionals.

Why So Many Real Estate Agents Hate Zillow

While hate is a strong word, this is how many real estate agents feel about Zillow. Why is this the case? It is all about one word – credibility.

As a whole, real estate agents have a difficult time being trusted by some people. In some circles, we are only regarded just above car salespeople.

When a home seller sits down to interview an agent on many occasions, a homeowner will already have visited Zillow and taken a look at their “Zestimate of value” for their home.

Along comes a Realtor who presents their comparative market analysis of all the households in the area that have recently sold, gone under contract, and are currently for sale.

The Realtor carefully takes the homeowner through all the local market data until they finally arrive at the suggested list price and probable sale price.

The seller’s jaw hits the floor. The local real estate expert has just come to the table with a value that is $50,000 less than what Zillow says the house is worth.

This is where the real estate agent has to go on the defensive because “Mr. & Mrs. I don’t trust Realtors” is now looking at you like you have three heads.

How could Zillow be wrong after all, they are a really well-run organization, and we see them advertising on television?

Most sellers don’t understand that Zillow estimates the values of over 100 million homes across the country. It would be impossible for them to predict the value of every home in America accurately.

Zillow Doesn’t Come in Yours or Comparable Homes

Potential buyers and sellers need to understand that Zillow does not enter properties. They have no idea what you have done to your individual home or in similar homes.

They don’t know what, if anything, we do to our houses. You could drop $75,000 renovating your kitchen and baths tomorrow, and Zillow won’t know that.

The last time I checked, there wasn’t a Zillow peeping tom that looked in everybody’s windows. I think everyone can agree, though, that dropping that much money into the kitchen and bath improvements will have a substantial impact on market value.

How could you expect them to come up with an accurate estimate without this information?

Here are more things to ponder:

  • Zillow doesn’t know that the town data card is wrong, and you really only have three bedrooms, not four.
  • Zillow doesn’t know you have a $20,000 structural crack in your foundation that needs repair.
  • Zillow does not know that your roof is on its last leg and needs replacement.
  • Zillow does not know you have a major easement running through your backyard that limits its use.
  • Zillow doesn’t know you just added central air conditioning, a sprinkler system, a security system, and $10,000 worth of landscaping.

Is the picture starting to become more clear about the accuracy of Zillow estimates? Zillow’s home values can be off by these things and others.

How to Get A Zillow Home Value?

If you have never searched for your Zillow home value, it is fairly easy. You can get Zillow home values by address. Just type your home address into the search bar.

You can also get Zillow home values by zip code as well. When you dig into the site, you’ll also see a Zillow home value map showing the estimations of properties in a specific geographical area. So, if you’re looking for Zillow house values nearby your property, you can do that.

Other Sites That Provide Online House Value Estimates

Zillow is not the only site that provides a home’s value. These other real estate sites do as well:

How Zillow is Useful

You may be thinking after reading the above information that I am not a fan of Zillow. Actually, that is really far from the truth. I love everything about Zillow except for their Zestimates of value.

The other information that Zillow gathers can be really useful when you are buying or selling a home.

When you are ready to buy a home, they have an excellent platform for looking at properties. The information provided is second to none, in my opinion.

There is no doubt that tons of folks love their integrated Bing maps that come with every listing. These are super handy when trying to decipher what is around a particular property.

They have all the information you would expect when buying a home like the square footage, bedroom and bath count, age, lot size, taxes, etc. Where they really excel, however, is their data of the past ownership of the home and what the owner paid.

These statistics are hard to find elsewhere, and Zillow does a marvelous of putting it at a buyer’s fingertips.

From a seller’s perspective, the site is excellent because the better a property looks online, the greater the chance buyers will pick up the phone to schedule an appointment with their real estate agent.

Zillow Has a Great App

Zillow also has an awesome app for those that have a smartphone. While you are out house hunting, you can quickly and easily pull up information while in front of a home!

This, of course, really comes in handy when you are out by yourself and don’t have a real estate agent handy to ask a question you might not otherwise get the answers to right away.

Folks, there is a reason why Zillow is the #1 most visited real estate website on the internet. Even though many Realtors hate them because of their crude estimating model, they provide excellent data that is helpful to both buyers and sellers.

However, you should NEVER think that a Zillow home value is what your property is worth.

Final Thoughts on Zillow Home Values

Several studies demonstrate that it’s possible Zillow can be accurate within 80-90% of the value of a home. This means that its estimates can be a good starting point.

However, when you are want to price a home to sell, or you want to know what a home is really worth so you can buy now, its numbers are not accurate enough.

It would be best to have a savvy real estate agent for on-point accuracy than knows the area and is successfully working it right now.

Zillow also shows you how prices are trending, either up or down, in a particular location. This is certainly useful information that can help you decide where you really want to buy and when. It is always good to know where prices appear to be going when making such a large transaction.

Zillow is a useful tool, but it does not provide enough accuracy on home prices to be used exclusively. The site states that its estimates are only a starting point. Keep this in mind when you are getting your own Zestimates.

If you are selling a home for sale by owner and were not planning on meeting with an appraiser or real estate agent to help you determine the accurate market value because you thought the Zillow estimate was good enough, hopefully, this has been an eye-opener.

Keep in mind that the number one reason homes do not sell is an unrealistic asking price. If you price your home incorrectly out of the gate, more than likely, you will end up selling it for less than you would have if priced correctly.

Additional Helpful Zillow Resources

Pricing a home properly is an art and science all rolled into one. It is not accomplished very well by trusting a computer-generated value, whether Zillow or some other online valuation tool.

If you want an accurate value of your home, always consult with a local real estate professional or competent appraiser.

 

 

The Zillow Zestimate

So what, exactly, is the Zillow Zestimate? This is Zillow’s proprietary home valuation tool, which can deliver an online estimate of value for most homes in the U.S. It relies on both public and user-submitted data, and its accuracy is partially dependent on just how much relevant data is publicly accessible. Some homes, for example, may have an unknown number of bedrooms – which impacts Zillow’s ability to price it accurately. 

There’s a few terms that are important to understand:

  • Estimated home value: an approximate amount your home would sell for, based on what other, similar properties have recently sold for.
  • True market value: what people are actually willing to pay for a home.
  • List price/asking price: this amount is set by the homeowner, on the advice of their agent. It may or may not reflect the true market value.

Because homes on the market have more info publicly available, their Zillow Zestimates tend to be a more accurate reflection of value than homes that are off market (such as yours, perhaps).

Zestimate launched in 2011 and was quickly an industry game changer. Its inception has been both welcome and controversial. 

Zestimate was embraced by consumers, because it allows them to gain valuable information about their home’s worth with a single click. Before, this process may have involved identifying a lot of individual data points and talking to a local Realtor. Now, homeowners can do a quick, casual check on their home’s value every month if they want.

However, Zestimate has also been controversial, because it’s not an appraisal – but consumers often treat it like one, which can lead to a misunderstanding of how much their home is really worth. These misunderstandings can have real-world consequences if consumers misprice their homes. But more on this below.

How Accurate is Zestimate?

The Zestimate is often less accurate than your Realtor’s estimate and can be thousands of dollars off. According to Zillow’s Zestimate page, “The nationwide median error rate for the Zestimate for on-market homes is 1.9%, while the Zestimate for off-market homes has a median error rate of 7.5%. This means that the Zestimates for half of all on-market homes are within 2% of the selling price, and half are not.”

This may seem like a negligible percentage – and for some homes, it is. 

However, take the example of a home with a true value of \$600,000. If the Zestimate is 7.5% off, the home Zestimate could be as high as $645,000 or as low $561,000. And 7.5% is only the U.S. median – in a market like Pittsburgh, where the median error rate is 11.3%, the Zestimate range jumps from $532,200 to $667,800 for a $600,000 home – a range of over $100,000

According to Real Estate Decoded, this breaks down to a typical error of \$18,000 for an unlisted home.

Zestimate-typical-error.jpg?mtime=20210303120620#asset:37729

Duvora’s 2019 case study “Exactly How Bad Are Zillow “Zestimates?” samples three homes per city in three major cities (Chicago, New York, Los Angeles). The study, which selected homes at random, indicated just how wide this range could really be. For homes in LA, the Zestimate was fairly accurate – hovering close to -5% for all homes. The New York homes, though, were all dramatically undervalued by the Zestimate. 

The author of the case study concluded that one issue was that the Zestimate, due to its reliance on comparables (past sales), often can’t pick up on the rapid price surges that happen in a seller’s market (which won’t necessarily be reflected in past sales). 

Here is how an example home fared in each market:

  • Chicago: Sold -9.45% below Zestimate
  • New York: Sold +60.07% above Zestimate
  • Los Angeles: Sold -4.9% below Zestimate

So: while the Zestimate can give homeowners an idea of very basic worth, it can also be pretty misleading. 

Can you dispute the Zillow Zestimate? 

Many homeowners worry that when the Zillow Zestimate is such a widely used tool by homebuyers, a lower Zestimate can adversely affect their ability to sell their home. After all – if a buyer thinks your home is worth $200,000 after visiting Zillow, it’s going to be harder to convince them to pay your asking price of $240,000. (There was even a Zillow Zestimate lawsuit by homeowners for this reason – but the court sided with Zillow.) 

So how can you update the Zestimate?

  • The first thing you should do is register with Zillow and claim your property. Once you’ve verified your identity, you’ll be able to edit information like how many bedrooms you have, remodeling details, etc. 
  • Zillow uses public tax records as the basis of off-market Zestimates, so having your home appraised – and therefore updating the public tax records – will ultimately impact the Zestimate.

If you can, it’s a good idea to double check your Zestimate before you go to sell so you can work to resolve any inaccuracies, since it may take time for these changes to be reflected in the Zestimate price.

What sort of factors impact  Zestimate accuracy?

You know now that the Zestimate can be off sometimes: what factors play into this? It turns out, there’s a few big ones. 

Zillow can’t see inside your home, they don’t know what features it has, they don’t take into account upgrades you may have, and it doesn’t take into account your neighborhood versus another neighborhood in the same zip code,” explains Baltimore-based listing agent June Piper-Brandon.

Consider how relevant these are to your home and neighborhood:

Home improvements

According to a 2019 report from Trulia, about 90% of homeowners surveyed planned to do a home renovation – with the bathroom and kitchen being the most cited projects. Our “Should You Renovate Before Selling?” guide has more specific information on important metrics like ROI – but in general, these projects add value to your home. Projects like bathrooms and kitchens, though, often don’t require permits – which means the Zillow Zestimate won’t be automatically taking them into account. 

Housing turnover

Hot neighborhoods are easier to price than neighborhoods with slow turnovers, since recently sold homes mean more comparables. 

The Neighborhood

Zillow often can’t break down data street by street – since comp. homes might be further away – yet most homeowners are aware that some streets fare better than others on the housing market, especially in dense urban neighborhoods.

The Algorithm

Zillow is constantly adjusting the algorithm it uses to determine the Zestimate. Remember, it’s a computer that decided this – not a person. You may see your Zestimate go up or down over time when Zillow updates how it weighs different data points in the algorithm. 

 

Piper-Brandon explains all this at greater length: 

Zillow will take all the homes in a zip code and bundle them together, and then average all the single family homes with about 1,500 square feet and 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms together – and that’s the value they give. 

So, for example in 21060, a zip code in Anne Arundel County, they will take a 1032 square foot rancher – some have a basement, some don’t, but Zillow doesn’t differentiate and one street is really nice with desirable homes, one has several distressed properties and the homes aren’t as well kept but again – Zillow doesn’t differentiate.  

So, your home is on the nicer block, but the value will be lower because it is compared to others on a worse block, whereas the ones on the worse block are higher but in fact the value is lower and less desirable. That’s why you need a Realtor that is familiar with the demographics and dynamics of the community, rather than a computer on the other side of the country.” 

Why the Zestimate can impact your home selling experience

As any experienced Realtor can tell you, emotions influence how we buy and sell homes. Fall in love with a great house that you “have to have,” and it’s harder to make logical financial decisions when it comes time to bid. Similarly, if you believe the Zestimate to be more or less accurate – only to have a professional appraisal indicate your home is worth far less – you may struggle to feel good about the selling process.

Confirmation bias also means that people are more inclined to believe data that backs their beliefs – and it’s well-known in the real estate industry that people often believe their homes are worth more than they actually are. Even if you know there’s a possibility that the Zestimate has overestimated your home by thousands of dollars, because it matches your belief about your home, it can unduly influence you to treat the Zestimate as “accurate.”

You may even overprice your home with the hopes of obtaining the Zestimate number, and fall into the trap of having fewer interested buyers – which means staying on the market longer, and eventually having to discount the price. 

What you can do to get the most accurate reading of your home’s value

Understanding your home’s true market value can help you decide whether, and when, to sell. Here’s a few ways you can better understand your home’s value.

  • Make use of competing home value tools available through RedfinRealtor.com, and Trulia. According to Marketplace, Redfin’s estimation tool is more accurate for homes on the market.
  • Take a closer look at the comparable homes that have sold in your area. Since you know your neighborhood and the general condition of some of the homes there, it may be easier to see that Zillow’s Zestimate prices your home the same as your neighbor’s – but you know you’ve updated the kitchen, installed a new HVAC system, and taken out the outdated carpeting, and they haven’t. 
  • Talk to an experienced local agent, who can view your home and give you a knowledgeable and more precise estimate of what your home is worth.

Talk to a The van Mill Group  about your home’s worth

Should you sell your home to Zillow?

You may have heard that Zillow buys homes from homeowners. In 2021, however, Zillow decided to shutter the iBuyer side of its business – meaning that you can no longer sell a home to Zillow directly (though many of its competitors still exist).

This was big news, especially because Zillow was using its own Zestimate to make offers – but the tool was too out-of-line with the actual value of homes for it to be a successful business model for them. In other words, Zillow’s own failure to launch in the i-Buyer space only highlighted the potential inaccuracy of their Zestimate tool.

If you decide to work with an alternative i-Buying company, here’s what you should keep in mind:

  • You may get to skip dealing with buyers, but there’s often no discount: most i-Buyer companies charge you extra for the convenience. A typical seller might pay a 6% agent fee, 1-2% closing costs, a 3% service charge, and deductions for repairs. 
  • Homes sold to iBuyer companies tend to net owners less profit than they would on the open market, precisely because there is no competition or negotiation; you either accept the price they offer, or you can’t sell a home to them.
  • However, selling with iBuyers can be a good option for homeowners who are dealing with distressed property, inherited property, or an extreme time crunch that makes it more appealing to quickly sell a home – rather than focusing on making the most profit from the sale. 

If all you’re looking for is seamless communication and a less stressful real estate experience, though, modern brokerages like Fish MLS Realy are usually a better option. Experienced agents can guide you through the process, while also making sure you net the most profit possible from your sale.

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